According to market data cited by TrendForce, the prices of bulk silicon carbide powders and particles, including black and green grades, continue to rise. The recent trading price is about 6271 yuan per ton, an increase of about 0.21% month on month. The reason for the price increase is due to the firm cost of raw materials, the expansion of downstream demand, and supply adjustments related to environmental inspections and capacity limitations, which collectively push up the cost of the distribution process.
In contrast, the 6-inch silicon carbide (SiC) wafer substrate market for power devices has been caught in a so-called 'price war'. The rapid expansion of production capacity by major global suppliers has led to oversupply. According to reports, from mid-2024 to the fourth quarter, wafer prices will fall below $500 per wafer, a decrease of over 20%. It is expected that by 2025, mainstream quotes will hover around $400 per chip or lower, and some suppliers may even sell at prices close to cost, which may accelerate integration among substrate manufacturers.
In addition to the field of power electronics, silicon carbide (SiC) is becoming increasingly prominent as a thermal management material for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) platforms. With the continuous increase of GPU power density, traditional heat dissipation solutions are no longer able to meet the demand, and silicon carbide with a thermal conductivity of up to 500 watts per meter Kelvin is gradually becoming an ideal material for heat dissipation and carrier structure.
The TrendForce report states that NVIDIA is expected to introduce SiC technology into its Rubin AI platform around 2025 and adopt TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging technology to replace traditional silicon interlayers with SiC, in order to better cope with high thermal loads. At the same time, TSMC is collaborating with suppliers to develop 12 inch single-crystal SiC carriers to replace traditional ceramic carriers in high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Chinese supplier SICC has started providing a full range of 12 inch SiC substrate samples to meet market demand.
As large data centers transition to 800V high-voltage DC architectures, silicon carbide (SiC) power devices are expected to achieve higher efficiency and lower losses at the system level. Meanwhile, SiC's high refractive index (approximately 2.6 to 2.7) is being evaluated for use in augmented reality (AR), mixed reality (MR), and virtual reality (VR) optical devices. Compared to traditional glass, it is expected to achieve thinner optical devices and wider field of view angles.
If the price of silicon carbide raw materials continues to rise while the price of 6-inch substrates still faces pressure, European integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) and module manufacturers may seize the opportunity to lock in more competitive wafer contracts, especially in automotive grade production lines. At the same time, any trend towards the transformation towards advanced packaging structures for 12 inch silicon carbide wafers and artificial intelligence accelerators may further push process technology and investment upstream of the value chain, bringing potential spillover effects to European packaging and materials experts.
In the short term, for engineers and procurement teams, silicon carbide is no longer just a wide bandgap material choice for high-voltage power devices. It is increasingly becoming a strategic material in the fields of artificial intelligence thermal management and advanced optics, while its cost structure is also being affected by the dual competition of silicon carbide raw material prices and substrate prices.